The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) has announced a cautious increase in oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), effective from October 2025. This incremental rise is part of a broader strategy by the oil cartel to regain market share amid fluctuating global demand.
The production boost forms a segment of a larger plan to return approximately 1.65 million bpd to the market, which was previously withheld to stabilize prices. The decision reflects OPEC+’s continuous efforts to fine-tune supply levels in response to evolving market dynamics and maintain its stronghold in the global oil market.
Despite the planned increase, oil prices have remained relatively stable. Analysts attribute this resilience to a combination of factors, including potential new U.S. sanctions on Russia and a technical market rebound, which have balanced out the impact of additional supply.
This latest production adjustment follows recent incremental hikes by OPEC+, including a 138,000 bpd rise in April and 411,000 bpd increases in May, June, and July. The August and September hikes furthered the group’s efforts to return to pre-cut production levels.
Prashant Vasisht, Senior VP at ICRA, said OPEC’s output hike will likely push prices down due to an oversupplied market, economic challenges, and slow demand growth as major consumers shift to greener energy.
Nitin Tiwari, VP at PhillipCapital, added that crude prices may stay flat or decline, as OPEC focuses on gaining market share rather than supporting prices, especially with lowered demand forecasts for 2025-26 by the IEA.
Market observers will be closely monitoring how this adjustment impacts global oil prices and demand in the coming months.
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