Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a difficult battle to remain in power after the country’s general election left his ruling bloc without a parliamentary majority. Although his Likud party emerged as the largest single party, the final count has exposed the limits of his political support and opened the door to complicated negotiations over the formation of the next government.
The results of the October 27 election show Netanyahu’s right-wing and far-right bloc winning 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, Israel’s parliament. The opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot secured 48 seats, while Arab-led parties collectively won 19. Neither major bloc has the 61 seats required to form a government independently.
The results are still awaiting formal certification and submission to President Isaac Herzog, but the counting process has effectively ended. Netanyahu’s bloc has lost the parliamentary majority it previously held, while the opposition has also failed to secure a clear route to power.
The biggest political development has been the strong performance of Arab-led parties. Their combined 19 seats give them considerable influence over the coalition negotiations, making their support potentially decisive if the opposition wants to replace Netanyahu. Their performance also reflects a significant turnout among Arab voters, whose participation has become central to the post-election political debate.
Eisenkot has started discussions with opposition leaders to explore whether they can form an alternative government. He has held talks with former prime minister Naftali Bennett, who leads the Together party, and Yair Golan of the Democrats party. The meetings are part of an effort to bring together political groups that disagree on several issues but share an interest in ending Netanyahu’s current leadership.
However, the opposition faces a difficult choice. It cannot reach the required majority without support from Arab-led parties or cooperation from politicians currently outside its alliance. Some opposition leaders have rejected a formal partnership with Arab parties, while Golan has been more open to discussing cooperation.
Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas and other Arab political representatives could therefore become important players in the negotiations. Their support could help the opposition reach the required numbers, although it remains unclear whether they would agree to join a coalition or provide support from outside the government.
A unity government involving Netanyahu and some opposition leaders is another possibility. Such an arrangement could provide a broader parliamentary base, but it would require major political compromises. Eisenkot and other opposition figures had campaigned against Netanyahu, citing his leadership, security failures and handling of national affairs. Joining his government could therefore create problems for their political credibility.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, has not conceded the possibility of remaining prime minister. He will continue in a caretaker role while the government formation process moves forward. His Likud party has also intensified allegations that Arab-led groups benefited from electoral irregularities and that foreign actors may have influenced the result.
The prime minister’s party claimed that the election had been stolen, but has not publicly established evidence to support the sweeping allegations. Arab political leaders rejected the claims, accusing Netanyahu of attempting to undermine their electoral gains and discredit Arab participation in Israeli politics.
The allegations have prompted scrutiny from election authorities and Israel’s domestic security agency, Shin Bet. Central Elections Committee chairman and Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg referred concerns about possible foreign interference to the agency for investigation. He said he could not independently verify the allegations but considered them serious enough to warrant examination.
However, election officials have rejected claims of widespread or systematic voter fraud. Acting director general of the Central Elections Committee Dean Livne described allegations of broad electoral manipulation as baseless. The Shin Bet has also clarified that its investigation is limited in scope and should not be interpreted as casting suspicion on Arab voters as a community.
Qatar has rejected allegations that it funded efforts to influence the Israeli election. The claims have added an international dimension to an already tense political dispute, although no evidence has been established publicly to prove that foreign interference changed the outcome.
The election is being closely watched because it was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and the wars that followed. His handling of national security, the military response in Gaza and Lebanon, and the continuing political controversy surrounding his government were major issues during the campaign.
Netanyahu’s political future also carries implications for Israel’s domestic and foreign policy. A new coalition could reopen debates over military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox communities, judicial reforms, the economy and the government’s approach to regional security. The Iran issue has also featured prominently in the prime minister’s post-election messaging.
President Herzog is expected to consult political parties after receiving the certified results and then ask a candidate to form a government. The newly elected Knesset is scheduled to convene on November 10. If coalition negotiations fail, Israel could face another election, potentially extending the political uncertainty into next year.
Netanyahu remains in office temporarily, but has no guaranteed path to a stable majority. Eisenkot has an opportunity to assemble an alternative, but cooperation with Arab-led parties remains politically sensitive. The final outcome will depend on whether rival parties can overcome their differences and agree on a government capable of securing the support of at least 61 lawmakers.
